Market Edge Methodology

Structural Bias, Tactical Bias and Execution Readiness are each built from a fixed list of weighted sub-components, run through the same shared reweight-then-cap rule every time a score is computed. Confidence is built differently — a fixed formula, not this same reweighting mechanism — see below.

Reweight-then-cap, in plain terms:every run, the system checks what share of a composite’s total configured weight is actually backed by real, available data this run (a component only counts as available when it has both a real computed value AND an explicit available flag — never a placeholder standing in for a real read). If the missing share is at or below the current threshold — 40% of total weight today — the composite renormalizes: the weights of the components that ARE available are scaled up so they sum to 100% among themselves, and the score is their weighted average. If the missing share exceeds that threshold, the composite does not produce a number at all — it reports insufficient_data with a null score, rather than compute a number from too thin a subset of what it is supposed to measure.

Structural Bias(the 7 FX pairs) is not built from its own pair-level features — it is the base-currency-minus-quote-currency difference of 4 per-currency components (each currency’s own reading already went through the same reweight-then-cap rule independently), with that same rule then applied a second time to the 4 differenced values. XAU/USD (gold) has no base/quote currency pair to difference, so it uses its own dedicated 7-component structural-equivalent model instead (the gold weight table below).

Tactical Bias is flat, not a currency diff — 5 components scored directly on the pair: a multi-timeframe technicals blend, verified news, an intermarket risk-sentiment read, a momentum/volatility/positioning-change blend, and the disclosed economic-surprise gap.

Execution Readiness answers a different question — not which way a pair should go, but whether right now is a sane moment to act on that bias. It is scored 0–100 (not −100..+100 like Structural and Tactical), from technical trigger alignment, major-event proximity, volatility suitability and a session/liquidity-clock read. That composite score maps to a categorical status — ready, watch, not_ready or stand_down — and a hard override forces stand_down whenever a confirmed high-impact economic release is inside 30 minutes, regardless of what the composite score itself says.

Confidence answers a different question from the other three scores: not a market read, but “how much should you trust the other three numbers right now.” It is a fixed 0–100 blend of four terms — it does not go through the same reweight-then-cap composer described above.

The four terms are summed, rounded, and clamped to 0–100. After that, Confidence is hard-capped at 25 whenever Structural Bias or Tactical Bias itself is insufficient_data — no combination of freshness, agreement or execution clarity can push it higher when a core leg has no real reading behind it.

Structural Bias and Tactical Bias (−100..+100 scale) use a deadband around zero: a score above +10 reads bullish, below −10 reads bearish, and anything in between reads neutral rather than forcing a directional call on a difference that small.

Execution Readiness (0..100 scale) maps to a status by fixed thresholds: 70+ is ready, 40–69 is watch, 15–39 is not_ready, and below 15 is stand_down. Separately, a hard override forces stand_down whenever a confirmed high-impact economic release is inside 30 minutes, regardless of the numeric score.