Galaxy Research, the research arm of the digital-asset firm Galaxy, has concluded that bitcoin's bear market is behind it. According to wire coverage of the report, the firm dates the end of the downturn to June and describes the current environment as an attractive one for accumulating the asset.
The firm points to several pieces of evidence. The first is technical: bitcoin has recovered its 50-week moving average. This is a long-horizon trend indicator that analysts commonly use to separate extended downtrends from recoveries, because it smooths out short-term swings across roughly a year of weekly price data. Regaining that line is treated by Galaxy as a sign that the prevailing direction has changed.
The second element concerns who is selling. Reports on the research say that selling by long-term holders, meaning investors who have kept their coins for an extended period, has faded. Long-term holders are often watched closely because their distribution can add persistent supply during late-stage declines, so a slowdown in that activity is read by Galaxy as a signal that the pressure that characterized the bear phase has eased.
The third factor is thematic. Galaxy says the case for bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement is becoming stronger. The debasement argument holds that the purchasing power of government-issued money erodes over time, which supports demand for a scarce, fixed-supply asset. The sources do not detail the specific data behind this point.
On the basis of these three observations, the research frames the present as a time to buy and hold, a conclusion that headlines on the report highlighted. This is the view of Galaxy Research and not an FXMARE recommendation. The material reviewed by FXMARE does not include price levels, targets or other quantitative detail from the report, so the scale of the recovery and the extent of the drop in holder selling are not specified here.
Galaxy's call adds to the ongoing debate over where bitcoin sits in its market cycle. Whether a bear market has ended is a judgment rather than an official designation, and different analysts weigh trend indicators, on-chain holder behavior and macro narratives differently.
Why it matters for traders
Bitcoin cycle calls influence sentiment and positioning across crypto markets, and a prominent research desk declaring the bear market over is a notable data point. The indicators cited, a reclaimed 50-week moving average and easing long-term holder selling, are ones many market participants monitor. Traders should note that this is one firm's interpretation, and the sources give no price figures to test it against.