Commodities News — page 9

Oil whipsawed on June 19, dipping then recovering as Israel and Hezbollah agreed a ceasefire while US-Iran follow-up talks in Switzerland were abruptly called off — with Brent near $80 and WTI near $77, both down more than 8% on the week as Hormuz supply resumes.

An original analysis: Brent's plunge below $80 prices the end of the war, but reopening the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be gradual, with damaged Gulf infrastructure and the need to rebuild depleted inventories (US reserves at a 43-year low) potentially keeping crude near $100 — meaning the road back may be far bumpier than the crash suggests.

Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 to $4,900, citing a hawkish Federal Reserve and doubts over near-term rate cuts.

Federal regulators are backing a push to speed electricity connections for AI data centers, while states and grid operators warn the move could weaken their authority.

The Strait of Hormuz is moving toward reopening after a peace deal, but analysts say shipping backlogs and security checks could keep oil flows disrupted for some time.

Traders weighed a US-Iran peace deal, hawkish Fed signals and the possible market impact on energy, safe-haven assets and defense shares.

The IEA lowered its global oil demand forecast after the Iran war disrupted supply, while oil prices hovered near three-month lows on easing tensions and supply-focused uncertainty.

Oil slipped again on June 17, holding below $80 after Brent's 5% drop to $78.96 — its first sub-$80 close since March — as investors weighed an imminent US-Iran deal that would reopen Hormuz against uncertainty over how fast supply returns.

Singapore’s exports climbed sharply in May, with AI-linked electronics driving the strongest monthly increase in about two decades.

A reported U.S.-Iran agreement could let Tehran resume oil sales quickly, but Barclays says physical supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz may still take weeks to normalize.

Oil prices fell sharply to a three-month low as markets priced in the possibility of wider access through the Strait of Hormuz, while questions remained over non-crude cargoes.

Goldman Sachs trimmed its oil price outlook after reports that a US-Iran deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease a major supply-risk concern.

Oil prices fell after reports of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, while U.S. emergency oil stocks were reported at their lowest level since 1983 and canola futures also weakened.

Sugar prices were little changed after a reported U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent oil lower and eased pressure across energy markets.

Energy prices declined in European trading as reports pointed to a U.S.-Iran agreement and related diplomatic developments in the Middle East.

Markets reacted to a weekend U.S.-Iran peace deal with weaker oil prices, gains in several stock markets and a mixed response across other assets.

Crude oil fell to a two-month low and European stocks firmed after reports that the U.S. and Iran agreed a framework to pause hostilities and pursue a peace deal.

The UAE announced on April 28 it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ after nearly 60 years, ending a long fight over quotas that capped its output far below ADNOC's ~4.85m bpd capacity — a historic break that frees Abu Dhabi to pump at will once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Brent jumped to $118 on April 29 and briefly hit ~$126 — the highest since 2022 — after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer and vowed to keep the US naval blockade in place until Tehran agreed to a nuclear deal, deepening the Hormuz supply standoff.

Brent jumped nearly 6% to $114.44 on May 4 after Iran attacked the UAE — setting fire to the Fujairah oil hub — and the US launched "Project Freedom" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking one of the war's oil-price peaks.

Brent fell about 19% over May to near $92 as US-Iran ceasefire and Hormuz-reopening hopes drained the war risk premium, despite a volatile month of fresh strikes and disputed deal claims.

At its June 7 ministerial — the first full session since the UAE quit the alliance on May 1 — OPEC+ reaffirmed its group-wide production quotas through December, opting for continuity amid the Iran-war supply squeeze.

Brent rose about 3.2% to $96 and WTI 3.5% to nearly $94 on June 8 after Israel and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, reviving the geopolitical risk premium even as US equities opened the week higher.

Precious metals and crude were pressured by shifting expectations around Iran and by ongoing uncertainty over interest rates, with Brent falling below $90 a barrel.

Crude prices slid and risk appetite improved after multiple reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal, while European stocks also advanced.