Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday, with Brent climbing more than 4% after reports that the United States plans to send a third aircraft-carrier strike group to the Middle East. CNBC reported the jump as traders reacted to the prospective military buildup, while Reuters said December Brent was trading at $101.20 a barrel at 12:47 p.m. EDT, up $3.17, or 3.2%, from Wednesday’s close. US West Texas Intermediate was up $1.58, or 1.8%, at $92 a barrel after trading close to $93 earlier in the session. The different percentage moves reflected the contracts and snapshots used by the outlets during a volatile trading day.
The immediate catalyst was a Wall Street Journal report that the Pentagon is preparing to send another carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the region. According to the Journal, the deployment would add 9,000 to 10,000 troops, with the ships, aircraft, Marines and sailors expected to arrive by the end of November. The report said the buildup comes as President Donald Trump considers renewing strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. CNBC linked the report directly to the oil rally as the prospect of a larger military presence revived concern about escalation around key energy routes.
The military news landed in an oil market that was already tight and highly sensitive to supply headlines. Reuters reported that Chinese refiners had suspended exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, potentially reducing the availability of fuel in markets already facing shortages. The agency said gasoline, jet fuel and diesel shipments from the Gulf remained around half of pre-war levels, citing Price Futures Group, while refinery damage in the Gulf and Russia continued to constrain refined-product supply. Prices had initially fallen more than 1% before reversing higher, illustrating how quickly the balance shifted as new information arrived.
The regional backdrop remains unsettled. Reuters reported that diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war had produced few visible results, while three Liberian-flagged oil tankers were struck by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. At the same time, some physical flows have improved: Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including shipments by vessels operating without location transponders, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the previous week, in line with the 2025 average. Saudi Arabia also resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline. Those improvements have helped crude reach buyers, but they have not removed the geopolitical premium attached to shipping and refinery risks.
What it means for traders: The latest move adds a military-risk component to an oil rally that was already supported by constrained fuel exports. Further confirmation of the US deployment, renewed strikes, or additional disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could keep volatility elevated in crude and in currencies sensitive to energy trade. Conversely, continued recovery in Gulf export volumes, progress in diplomacy, or measures to release emergency fuel stocks could temper supply concerns. USD/CAD is relevant because shifts in crude prices can affect expectations around Canada’s energy-linked export income, although the currency pair also responds to interest-rate differentials and broader US-dollar demand.
The next points to watch are official Pentagon confirmation and the timing and scale of the reported deployment, alongside any response from Iran. Energy markets will also monitor Friday’s European Union energy taskforce discussion on a possible diesel-stock release and Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting. Reuters reported that producers were likely to keep November output targets unchanged. With Brent above $100 in the Reuters snapshot and intraday moves differing across contracts, incoming security, export and inventory headlines remain the main near-term drivers of price direction.