U.S. consumer confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since 2014 and far below the 89.2 level expected by economists surveyed by Reuters. The Conference Board’s monthly index extended a recent deterioration in household sentiment as Americans became more concerned about prices, current business conditions and the outlook for employment.
The weakness was broad-based. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor-market conditions, dropped 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which measures the short-term outlook for income, business conditions and employment, declined 5.9 points to 63.6. The Conference Board said appraisals of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024, while perceptions of the current labor market also worsened but remained slightly positive.
Price pressures were a central concern in the survey. Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson identified higher prices, particularly fuel costs, as a factor behind the decline. The September result followed two months of weakening confidence and was consistent with a separate University of Michigan survey showing softer consumer sentiment. The decline also came as households faced elevated borrowing costs after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September.
Labor-market concerns added to the pressure. Consumers expected both business conditions and employment to weaken over the next six months, while the Conference Board’s labor-market differential deteriorated by 2.5 percentage points. A separate Labor Department report showed U.S. job openings declined to 7.079 million in August, below the 7.225 million consensus estimate. July’s figure was revised higher to 7.335 million from 7.271 million.
The survey matters because household spending is a major driver of U.S. economic activity. A sustained drop in confidence can signal greater caution on discretionary purchases, particularly when consumers are also dealing with rising fuel prices and higher financing costs. The latest reading does not by itself establish that spending will contract, but the fall below forecasts and the decline in both present and forward-looking components make the report a notable warning on demand.
What it means for traders: The confidence and job-openings data present a softer growth signal at a time when markets are still assessing persistent inflation and elevated Treasury yields. For EUR/USD and USD/JPY, the immediate channel is expectations for Federal Reserve policy: weaker demand and labor indicators can reduce pressure for tighter policy, while high inflation can pull expectations in the opposite direction. Reuters reported that U.S. equities were broadly flat as higher bond yields countered optimism in technology shares.
The next tests will come from the U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation report and the September employment data. Traders will watch whether wage growth and payroll gains remain resilient, whether inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s target and whether consumer confidence stabilizes after reaching a more-than-12-year low. The combination of household sentiment, job openings and inflation will help determine whether September’s sharp drop reflects a temporary reaction to prices or a broader slowdown in domestic demand.