Spain’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.9% in September, according to preliminary data reported by ForexLive and El País, beating the 4.6% consensus estimate and rising from 4.3% in August. The reading was the highest since February 2023. Spain’s European Union-harmonised measure also climbed to 5.0%, above the 4.9% forecast and the previous 4.6% rate.
The increase was driven mainly by higher fuel costs, according to El País. The prolonged conflict involving Iran and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted energy costs, while supply strains in gas and diesel have been compounded by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. A comparison effect also pushed the annual rate higher because fuel prices had fallen in September 2025.
Underlying price pressure also strengthened. Core inflation, which excludes energy and fresh food, rose by two-tenths of a percentage point to 3.1%, El País reported. That detail matters because the rise was not confined entirely to volatile energy prices. Spain’s official August data had shown core inflation at 2.9%, while headline CPI was 4.3% and the harmonised rate was 4.6%.
The September figures arrive as policymakers across Europe assess how renewed energy inflation may pass through to a wider range of goods and services. Spain’s government has argued that earlier measures have softened some of the impact on households and limited second-round effects in sectors including agriculture and transport. It is also preparing a decree that includes limits on regulated gas and butane prices, although El País reported that the government’s fiscal room is narrower after earlier support packages.
The data provide an early signal for the broader euro-area inflation picture. Spain’s national CPI is not the same as the euro-area aggregate, but the stronger-than-expected reading raises the importance of forthcoming releases from other member states and Eurostat. The split between headline inflation at 4.9% and core inflation at 3.1% also gives policymakers two separate questions to assess: how long the energy shock may last, and whether price pressure is spreading beyond fuel and other volatile components.
What it means for traders: EUR/USD may be sensitive to whether other euro-area inflation reports confirm Spain’s upside surprise. A broader acceleration in headline and core prices would strengthen the case for the European Central Bank to maintain a restrictive stance, while softer readings elsewhere would suggest Spain’s result is more concentrated in country-specific energy effects. The exchange-rate response will also depend on the relative U.S. rate outlook, so the Spanish figures are one part of a wider comparison between ECB and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Attention now turns to Spain’s final September CPI release and the next euro-area inflation estimate. Traders will watch for revisions to the 4.9% national and 5.0% harmonised readings, along with details on fuel, food, services and other core categories. Energy-market developments around the Strait of Hormuz and Russian refining capacity will remain relevant because the preliminary report directly linked September’s acceleration to fuel and supply pressures.