The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its overnight policy rate unchanged at 2.25% when it announces its next decision on September 2, a move that would mark the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. In a survey of analysts covering the decision, every respondent projected a hold, underlining how settled market expectations have become heading into the announcement.
The anticipated pause reflects a central bank caught between two competing pressures. Inflation has been running near the upper end of the Bank's target range, an argument for caution on additional easing or any near-term cut. At the same time, a fresh round of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from Canada have introduced new downside risk to the growth outlook, even after the economy posted stronger-than-expected second-quarter output and a healthier July labour market than many had forecast.
The rate announcement is scheduled for 9:45 a.m. ET and will be followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. Because the headline decision is expected to be a non-event, attention is shifting to how Macklem frames the balance of risks between still-elevated inflation and the trade-driven threat to growth, with his remarks seen as the clearest signal available for where policy heads next.
That question is already dividing forecasters. While the September outcome looks uniform, projections for the months that follow show a genuine split among Canada's largest bank economics teams. National Bank and Scotiabank have broken from the consensus, forecasting that the Bank of Canada will resume tightening with a quarter-point increase to 2.50% at the October meeting, followed by a further move to 2.75% before the end of the year.
The remaining four of Canada's six largest banks — BMO, CIBC, RBC and TD — instead expect the policy rate to stay parked at 2.25% through December, with any resumption of hikes pushed into 2027 and made contingent on growth proving durable rather than a temporary rebound.
Analysis from National Bank of Canada has framed the tariff dispute as a central factor reshaping how policymakers weigh risks in the coming quarters, rather than a secondary consideration behind inflation. That framing helps explain the split: banks leaning hawkish are effectively betting that resilient growth and firm inflation will outweigh trade friction, while those expecting a longer hold see the tariff shock as the more persistent drag on activity.
For a central bank that has held steady for most of 2026, the disagreement among major forecasters over the next move is notable in itself. It suggests that, barring a clear deterioration in trade conditions or a surprise on inflation, the path beyond September is likely to remain contested among economists until incoming data — and Macklem's own commentary — narrows the range of outcomes.