Tesla slips as analysts turn cautious on the robotaxi ramp ahead of Q2 results

Tesla shares came under renewed pressure, sliding in early trading as a run of cautious analyst commentary shifted attention away from the carmaker's core vehicle business and onto the unproven autonomy and robotics ambitions that now underpin much of its valuation. The stock changed hands around $394 ahead of the US open, leaving it roughly 20% below its 52-week high near $499, though still comfortably above its 52-week low.

The immediate trigger was a downbeat preview from Jefferies ahead of Tesla's second-quarter results, which are tentatively due on July 22. The brokerage warned that the company's push into robotaxis and humanoid robots would, at least initially, act as a drag on profitability rather than the engine of revenue growth that much of Wall Street has already priced in. Analysts there see the coming print landing below consensus, which currently sits near $0.445 in earnings per share on revenue of about $24.3 billion. The mood among forecasters has been souring, with downward earnings revisions outnumbering upward ones by roughly 14 to eight over the past three months.

Not every house shares the gloom on the near-term numbers. Wolfe Research struck a more constructive tone on the quarter itself, with analyst Emmanuel Rosner estimating that Tesla likely handed over around 420,000 vehicles globally in the period, close to a tenth above the prior-year figure and ahead of a consensus nearer 400,000. He also pencilled in automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, in the low-18% range and earnings modestly above the Street's estimate.

The catch, in Wolfe's view, is that the car business accounts for only a small slice of how the market values Tesla. The far larger component rests on confidence in the company's longer-term bets across self-driving taxis, humanoid robots and related artificial-intelligence services. On that front, Rosner cautioned that the pace of progress has disappointed, writing that the ramp curves are shallower than previously expected, most notably in robotaxis, and that Tesla looks set to fall short of its first-half deployment goals.

Competition is intensifying at the same time. Rosner pointed to Alphabet's Waymo, which is pressing ahead with an expansion into around 20 cities this year and already runs paid driverless rides at scale, alongside planned robotaxi deployments from Mobileye and accelerating humanoid efforts from rivals such as Figure AI and Boston Dynamics. Each chips away at the first-mover narrative that has helped justify Tesla's premium.

One factor cushioning the shares, according to Wolfe, has been the market's growing assumption that Tesla and the newly public SpaceX could eventually combine, a prospect that lends some downside support even amid the operational doubts. The analyst cautioned, however, that any such tie-up would be unlikely before the middle of 2027 at the earliest.

For now, the stock's heightened sensitivity reflects its unusual position: a company whose share price is driven less by how many cars it sells than by whether investors believe its autonomy and robotics roadmap will ultimately pay off. With a high beta that tends to magnify broader market swings, and a valuation still leaning heavily on future execution, the July earnings call looms as the next major test of whether the optimism baked into the price can hold.