Tanker traffic surges through Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran deal takes hold, but 60-day clock looms

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is rebounding sharply as the United States and Iran begin implementing their agreement to reopen the vital waterway, with vessel-tracking data showing a clear pickup in transits after months of near-paralysis. The revival marks a tangible step toward normalizing global energy flows, even as questions linger over how the strait will be governed once the deal's initial terms expire.

According to maritime-intelligence analysts, traffic began reviving in the hours after the two governments signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war. One firm counted roughly 18 vessels transiting the strait in a single 20-hour window, describing the movement as a sign of growing confidence in the agreement. Among the most notable crossings, several supertankers carrying millions of barrels of crude switched their transponders back on in the Gulf of Oman after concealing their positions for more than two months, while a number of Iranian-linked vessels passed through the area that had been subject to a US naval blockade.

The shift in tone has been reinforced by changes in the security environment. A US-led maritime coordination body downgraded the threat level in Hormuz from its most severe classification, a move that shippers had signaled they were waiting for before risking transits. With the blockade on Iranian ports lifted and the immediate danger to vessels easing, insurers and operators have begun to recalibrate, a process that should gradually pull down the elevated risk premiums that had effectively shut much of the traffic.

Still, the reopening comes with a defined time limit that is already shaping expectations. Under the signed agreement, Iran has committed to allowing commercial vessels to transit the strait free of charge for a period of 60 days, after which the administration of the waterway and any associated maritime services would be determined by Tehran in coordination with Oman and others. Iran's maritime authority issued a notice waiving transit fees for that negotiating window while requiring ships to submit transit requests in advance, underscoring that the current openness is conditional and temporary rather than a permanent settlement.

That structure raises the central uncertainty hanging over the market: what happens when the toll-free period ends. The question of who ultimately controls access to a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil once flowed, and on what terms, remains unresolved, and it will weigh on how quickly shippers commit to the route over the longer term.

Caution is therefore still evident in the data. Analysts expect transits to climb only gradually, potentially toward around half of prewar levels within the first month rather than snapping back immediately, with many operators waiting to see whether early crossings proceed without incident. Industry groups have also warned that mine risk and other hazards persist, and some vessels are still favoring shipping lanes closer to Iranian islands rather than the traditional central route, reflecting residual safety concerns.

The diplomatic track, meanwhile, is not fully settled. A planned round of direct talks in Switzerland was postponed, a reminder that turning an interim understanding into a durable peace remains a work in progress. For now, though, the steady return of tankers to Hormuz is the clearest signal yet that the worst of the energy disruption may be passing, with the market watching each transit for confirmation that the recovery can hold.