Gold: Buy-the-Dip Intact While 2,300 Holds

Gold's pullback toward the 2,335 area is, in our view, a buying opportunity within an intact uptrend rather than the start of a deeper reversal. The metal has consolidated its record-breaking run in an orderly fashion, holding well above the 2,300 psychological floor and the rising 100-day moving average. Healthy uptrends correct through time and shallow price dips; this is the textbook version of that behaviour.

The fundamental case rests on two pillars. First, official-sector demand remains exceptionally strong — central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been persistent net buyers as they diversify reserves away from the dollar, and that flow is price-insensitive in a way speculative demand is not. Second, the real-yield backdrop is turning supportive: as markets discount the next Fed easing cycle, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls, historically a tailwind for bullion.

Technically, the structure is constructive. Each correction this year has bottomed at a higher low, and the latest dip has so far respected that pattern. We look for buyers to defend the 2,300–2,335 demand zone; a hold there would, in this illustrative framework, set up a retest of the prior high and, on a breakout, a measured objective near 2,450. The 2,335–2,356 area is the zone to watch for dip buyers.

The stop placement is critical. A decisive break and daily close below 2,288 would breach the rising trendline and the most recent higher low, signalling that the corrective phase has become something more serious. We would step aside on that signal. Above it, the path of least resistance remains higher and the risk/reward on a dip entry near 2,335 toward 2,450 is compelling.

The main risk is a sharp back-up in real yields driven by a hawkish inflation surprise, which would temporarily mute the bid. We treat that as a tactical risk to manage with the stop, not a reason to abandon the structural thesis. For now, gold remains a buy-on-weakness asset.